Based on the 5 AM National Hurricane Center Topical Cyclone Forecast Discussion (TCM & The NHC finally notes the slowing of IRMA as it approaches the central and western Bahamas!
The ever popular ECMWF model calls for the center of IRMA to move briefly over some portion of mountainous Cuba before it tracks between Old Bahama Channel & the western Bahamas…then crossing the full laden Gulf Stream before making landfall is between Marathon Key & Ft Meyers late Sat early Sun before heading northward overland through the FL peninsula, Georgia & western North Carolina (the later by a week from today…next Tuesday evening).
Of course this could change as the US models are calling for Irma not to hit any portion of Cuba, which would be real bad news for the Keys & south FL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050848.shtml?
